BioWare's Two Million Subscriber Target

22 Mar 2010 at 00:00:00 by Bill Vaughan

Last week, BioWare took the extremely bold step of announcing one of its sales targets for the upcoming MMO, Star Wars: The Old Republic.

I say bold, because we all know how embarrassing it is for companies when the actual sales don't meet up to the declared estimates. Warhammer Online, I'm looking at you.

Back before WAR launched, Mythic's general manager Mark Jacobs confidently stated that anything less than 500,000 subscribers would be considered a failure for the game. Three months after launch, subscription numbers had dropped from the initial 800,000 down to 300,000. I bet Jacobs wished he'd stayed quiet.

I can't say I blame Mythic for believing WAR would do better, when you consider that World of Warcraft was four years old at the time and was holding onto 11 million players each month. I actually think everyone was a little shocked when the MMO based on the massive Conan franchise, Age of Conan, first showed signs of trouble with around 300,000 subscribers and then WAR followed suit. Both had been heralded as 'WoW killers' but failed to deliver and, you know what, you don't hear people so quick to use that term anymore.

Developers of other games, such as Lord of the Rings Online and Champions Online, choose to keep their subscription figures quiet, which is a wise choice unless you have something to boast about. Gamers are unlikely to pick up a game if they know barely anyone plays it.

So with all this in mind, I was pretty shocked to see BioWare come out and say that they need one million subscribers to sign up for SW:TOR just to break even, but they're aiming for two million. To me, this says they have huge confidence in their product. Not only are they daring to disclose the number of subscribers the game needs before it will start making money, they're also saying they believe it will bring in double that amount. No other western MMO apart from WoW has ever come anywhere close. So what will SW:TOR have that other games have lacked?

Its first major weapon is the franchise; Star Wars is enormous, obviously, and it lends itself well to gaming, as seen by the plethora of existing titles. A huge universe is already there mapped out, developers just need to give it life and, judging by the content we've seen from the developers so far, they're doing a cracking job. Players will be able to choose what type of character they want to try out, ranging from Bounty Hunter to Trooper to Jedi Knight, fulfilling almost every fan's desires. There's also the playerbase from the previous/current Star Wars MMO, Galaxies, who are likely keen to get into the latest interactive Star Wars title.

Having a well-known name in the title doesn't always guarantee success though, as AoC and WAR proved. The exact numbers aren't known, but even LOTRO is only thought to have between 300,000 and 500,000 subscribers. Another MMO based on a massive sci-fi name, Star Trek, went live last month and we know that, combined with Cryptic Studios' other game Champions Online, there are around one million registered game accounts in total. Even the colossal Star Trek can't manage the figures SW:TOR needs to break even.

Another positive factor that SW:TOR has going for it is its developer; BioWare has built itself a reputation, similar to that of WoW's Blizzard Entertainment, of releasing outstanding games. The two recent BioWare titles, Dragon Age: Origins and Mass Effect 2 have broken numerous records and received rave reviews from critics and fans alike. The company has a earned a loyal following consisting of millions of gamers who are keen to try anything it produces, but the majority of its games so far have been RPGs. How will the studio manage with its first MMORPG?

BioWare claims it's approaching the genre from a new angle, offering gamers something more than they've had from previous and existing MMOs. The new ingredient? A rich story. BioWare knows what its good at, and is incorporating one of its strongest qualities into SW:TOR. Players can expect the good old conversation wheels when speaking to NPCs, full voice overs for every line of speech in the game, and a different intricate storyline for each of the classes that can alter, depending on how people play their characters.

The concept is taken straight from BioWare's smash hit RPGs, something proven to be highly popular with gamers. However, it remains to be seen if this and all the other factors will be enough to bring in those two million subscribers. A bold step indeed, BioWare.

Comment