World of Warcraft: Cataclysm – New Life, Or a Long Slow Death?

05 Oct 2010 at 09:00:55 by Jeff Hollis

Hey there, my dear MMO geeklings, and welcome to this week's very speculative edition of MMO Weekly.  In this week's diatribe, I'll talk about the upcoming release of WoW's next expansion, Cataclysm.  I'll also muse openly on whether this expansion will breathe new life into old WoW, or will just delay the inevitable.

The Problem

First off, let me say this:  WoW is a great MMO, and every time I think the game is in decline, they pull something out of their hat to resuscitate things for a while.  However, WoW is also an old dog.  The game is now nearly six years old.  In terms of an MMO staying at the top of the heap, six years is a very long time. 

WoW has had a great run.  In fact, it's been the greatest run in MMO history, and it's not over yet.  However, at some point, all great MMOs begin the slow, withering process leading to their eventual demise.  Is that time approaching for WoW?

The Solution

The answer to that question lies in one word:  Cataclysm.  

The overarching situation is this:  according to a little informal (and highly subjective) survey I've been taking, most of the people that I know that play WoW aren't really playing any more.  They fall into three distinct groups:

1.      Some fall into the first group, and they still play.  Some are as hardcore as ever.  Most play a few times a week.  They aren't as into it as they once were, though the game, to them, is still pretty fun.

2.      In the second group are the people that can't let go.  They still have subscriptions, but they don't actually play.  (My wife is one of those people.  She logs in, and then gets into an instance maybe once a month.)  Their guilds long ago disbanded, and they can't find their friends when they log on, because their friends are no longer are very active, either.

3.      Then there are the people in the third group, and they've canceled their subscriptions. They loved the game, but they feel that the bloom is off the rose.  It was great six years ago, it was still a lot of fun three years ago, but nowadays, it's just the same old dry routine.  For them, WoW is isn't the super-addictive game it used to be. 

On a side note, have you ever wondered why Blizzard isn't exactly publicizing their subscription numbers the way they used to?  This has caused a fair amount of speculation (check out any active fan forum, and this topic has a tendency to come up).  My guess is that this level of speculation is because Blizz used to make a very big, showy deal of announcing their latest figures, and then...well, they just haven't done a lot of that since 2009.  Instead, they have devs and execs commenting somewhat ambiguously that they're maintaining the same number of subscriptions, etc.  While it's certainly not definitive, this kind of thing has a tendency to make people wonder if the game has plateaued, or is actually in decline and Blizz isn't ready to admit it yet.  (Ok, ok, back to the topic at hand.)

Can Cataclysm Deliver?

If Blizz wants to keep WoW at the top of the head for some time to come, they really have to deliver with Cataclysm.  Cataclysm has to accomplish two major things.  It has to give people who are happy with the game a lot of new, fun content to explore.  This is well known, and very well understood by Blizz. They've done it before.  I am confident, based on their track record, that the Blizzard devs will really shine in this area.

The second thing Cataclysm has to accomplish is it has to remake itself enough to make all those people who are “on the fence” about the game – the people that fall into groups two and three, above – want to play the game again.  Cataclysm has to make WoW seem new and exciting. 

Can Cataclysm accomplish this second goal?  I honestly don't know, but it would clearly be very hard to do.  How does Blizz simultaneously keep established, happy players feel that they are playing the same game they've grown to love, and at the same time make tired players feel like the game is refreshed, renewed, and reborn? 

This is an old problem for MMOs.  Everquest had this problem when it was the top dog, and they released expansion after expansion (seventeen of them at this point) with new features, new content, and improved gameplay every single time.  It delayed the inevitable for a while.  However, ultimately it didn't really work.  EQ was aging, and they never found a way to fix that.  Eventually a worthy successor came along, and that game was WoW.  EQ faded.  WoW became the belle of the ball. 

My heartfelt feeling is that Cataclysm will forestall the inevitable, but it cannot do so forever.  This expansion will probably be Blizzard's best yet, since they have learned from both prior expansions, BC and WotLK.  Will it please all the players in group one?  There is no question in my mind.  Will many of the players in groups two and three play the expansion?  Again, there is no question that many of them will.  However, I don't think it will be enough to woo back, on a long term basis, all the players in groups two and three.  When the next big MMO comes along, they'll be so anxious for something new, they'll jump all over it.

Will that next big MMO be Star Wars: The Old Republic?  Or will it be Guild Wars 2?  Will It be the next Everquest?  Could the next big MMO be an indy title we haven't heard of yet?    In truth, I have no idea, and neither does anyone else. 

I am confident, however, that come December 7^th, millions of copies of Cataclysm will be sold, and Blizzard will make more money than any of us could ever imagine.  I'm also confident that, by any standard, Cataclysm will be a success.  I don't think, however, that Cataclysm will be  the “magic” expansion that some think it will be.  It probably will not change history.  It can't do what no other expansion has ever done, reverse the effects of time, and breathe new life into an aging MMO. 

As always, opinions differ.  If you have any insight, analysis, rants, or unbridled speculation you'd like to share, please do so in the comments.  I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. 

Also, as always, if you enjoyed this piece, feel free to visit us over at Coolorama.com, where we talk about MMOs, gaming, geek stuff, technology, and all manner of other tomfoolery, each and every day.  For now, ciao!

For further information on everything World of Warcraft, head to WoW: IncGamers.

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