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Pachter: GTA V could see sells of 24 million

10 Aug 2011  by   John Robertson

Analyst expects big sales of Rockstar’s next entry into the Grand Theft Auto series. No surpirse there…
In his most recent attention-grabbing statement, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has said that his company expect Grand Theft Auto V (a game yet to be officially announced) to sell “at least 18 million” and that 24 million is very possible.
As a comparison, Grand Theft Auto IV has shipped roughly 20 million units.
“We expect the next Grand Theft Auto to sell at least 18 million units, representing a 20% attach rate to the estimated 2011 year-end installed base of PS3 and Xbox 360 in the U.S. and Europe,” Pachter told investors. 

“We estimate that Grand Theft Auto will generate at least $2.65/share in incremental EPS, making Take-Two’s forecast of ‘in excess’ of $2.00 per share in earnings during FY:13 easily attainable.

“Should the game sell 24 million units (in line with its historical attach rate), we expect contribution of more than $4.00 per share in incremental EPS. Importantly, the company has a history of providing conservative guidance, and without a GTA game in [fiscal year 2013], we would not expect management to be so bold as to guide to earnings over $2.00.”

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