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Pachter: GTA V could see sells of 24 million

10 Aug 2011  by   John Robertson
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Analyst expects big sales of Rockstar’s next entry into the Grand Theft Auto series. No surpirse there…
In his most recent attention-grabbing statement, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has said that his company expect Grand Theft Auto V (a game yet to be officially announced) to sell “at least 18 million” and that 24 million is very possible.
As a comparison, Grand Theft Auto IV has shipped roughly 20 million units.
“We expect the next Grand Theft Auto to sell at least 18 million units, representing a 20% attach rate to the estimated 2011 year-end installed base of PS3 and Xbox 360 in the U.S. and Europe,” Pachter told investors. 

“We estimate that Grand Theft Auto will generate at least $2.65/share in incremental EPS, making Take-Two’s forecast of ‘in excess’ of $2.00 per share in earnings during FY:13 easily attainable.

“Should the game sell 24 million units (in line with its historical attach rate), we expect contribution of more than $4.00 per share in incremental EPS. Importantly, the company has a history of providing conservative guidance, and without a GTA game in [fiscal year 2013], we would not expect management to be so bold as to guide to earnings over $2.00.”

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